Total fertility rate (TFR) is the number of children a woman would have at current age-specific birth rates. About 2.1 keeps a population stable without migration. Click any country to see its population pyramid and where it's headed, then change future fertility to see what happens.
Data. Population by single year of age and sex, life tables, age-specific fertility, migration and all historical series come from the UN World Population Prospects 2024 (the latest revision; estimates through 2023, projections after). "Latest" TFR values come from national statistics offices, Eurostat and recent surveys where a 2024 or 2025 figure has been published; elsewhere the map falls back to the UN's estimate for 2026. Hover a country to see which source it uses.
Model. Your scenario is a standard cohort-component projection run in your browser: single-year ages 0–100+, annual steps from mid-2026 to 2100. Each year people age one year and die according to the UN's projected life tables, births come from your TFR applied to the UN's projected age pattern of childbearing, and migrants are added by age and sex following the UN's projected migration. With the UN fertility path selected it reproduces the UN medium variant to within about 1% for most countries by 2100.
Caveats. Projections are scenarios, not forecasts. Migration is held to the UN's assumptions (scaled by the slider) and doesn't respond to population pressure. Regions use the UN's regional aggregates. Very small territories can deviate more.